Burry's Palantir Math Is Right. His Answer Isn't.
Ricardo Argüello, September 12, 2026
CEO & Founder
General summary
On September 3, 2026, Michael Burry posted on X that Palantir is a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand, and supported it by dividing deferred revenue by quarterly revenue. That 32 percent is exact against the 10-Q. It also excludes $452 million in customer deposits the same filing groups as contract liabilities, and it ignores an 84.7 percent gross margin no consultancy has ever sustained.
- Palantir's deferred revenue is 31.7 percent of quarterly revenue, against Salesforce at 207.6 percent in its fiscal 2025 close
- The calculation leaves out $452.1 million in customer deposits the 10-Q groups as contract liabilities
- On that basis the ratio rises to 55.1 percent, nearly double the headline figure
- Palantir's gross margin climbed to 84.7 percent in Q2 2026 while Accenture runs around 32 percent
- Scion deregistered as an investment adviser on November 10, 2025, so Burry's current position is not publicly verifiable
Two invoices on the same desk. One is an annual subscription billed up front, cash already collected for work still owed. The other is a project delivered and billed last month. A balance sheet tells you which of the two dominates, and therefore whether a vendor is selling you a product or selling you people. That is the whole test.
AI-generated summary
Palantir’s gross margin went up while its revenue nearly doubled. From 80.6 percent in 2023 to 84.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, with revenue at $1.94 billion, up 93 percent year over year.
Accenture runs around 32 percent.
That single comparison is the strongest argument against the case Michael Burry made this month, and almost nobody covering the story mentioned it.
What he actually said, and what he actually measured
On September 3 he posted on X that Palantir is a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand, and warned the market cap could fall below $100 billion from roughly $430 billion.
He backed it with a ratio anyone can recompute. Deferred revenue on the balance sheet, divided by that quarter’s revenue.
I pulled the filings. His arithmetic is clean.
Palantir’s 10-Q shows $613.2 million of total deferred revenue against $1,935.5 million of quarterly revenue as of June 30, 2026. That is 31.7 percent. Salesforce at its fiscal 2025 close carried $20,743 million against $9,993 million of quarterly revenue, or 207.6 percent.
The reasoning behind the ratio is sound too. Subscription businesses bill a year ahead and carry a mountain of unearned obligation. Consultancies bill for work already delivered and carry almost nothing.
Two things the number leaves out
Both come from the same document he cites.
Palantir books customer deposits on a separate line from deferred revenue. At June 30 those were $452.1 million current plus half a million noncurrent. The 10-Q adds them together itself, calls the total contract liabilities, and reports $1.1 billion. Run the ratio on that and you get 55.1 percent.
Still nowhere near a subscription business. But 55 and 32 do not tell the same story, and the filing hands you 55 without any interpretive work.
Then the margin. A consultancy’s cost of revenue is salaried humans, and no amount of scale turns that into 85 points of gross margin. Palantir is posting 47 percent GAAP operating margins and 63 percent free cash flow margins alongside it.
One smaller thing. His Accenture comparison at 31 percent does not use the same base. On the most recent quarter, applying the exact method he applied to Palantir, Accenture comes in at 40.4 percent. Higher, not lower.
Where he is completely right
Palantir does not disclose how much of its revenue comes from professional services. Anywhere. The 10-Q’s revenue disaggregation splits government from commercial and stops there.
So anyone quoting you a services percentage for Palantir made it up.
Alex Karp himself called the company a hybrid of infrastructure software, forward deployed engineers, orchestration and business know-how on the Q2 call. That word is his. Shyam Sankar went further and said only Palantir has FDEs while everyone else has sparkling sales engineers.
We wrote about half the industry hiring forward deployed engineers and renaming the job in the decade’s most expensive rebrand.
The test worth running on your own vendors
Here is what I take from this, and it has nothing to do with where the stock goes.
The ratio works. It is misapplied here, but it works, and you can run it on any publicly traded vendor of yours in an afternoon using documents that are free.
Add every contract liability in the latest filing, deferred revenue plus customer deposits, not just the first line. Divide by that quarter’s revenue. Then read gross margin next to it, which is the half nearly everyone skips.
Low ratio and low margin, you are buying hours on an invoice that says software. Low ratio and high margin, you are buying a product that still needs people to install it, which is a different business and a legitimate one, but it changes your implementation budget. High ratio, you paid in advance and the execution risk sits on their side of the contract.
Which of the three is your main AI vendor? Do you know, or are you assuming? Did anyone check before the last renewal went out?
One more thing before you cite this in a meeting. Scion, Burry’s fund, deregistered as an investment adviser on November 10, 2025, and its last 13F covers the third quarter of that year. His current position against Palantir does not appear in any public record. That does not touch the arithmetic. It does change how much weight you put on the person signing it.
Run the numbers on your three most expensive vendors this week. Half an hour, public filings, and you come out knowing what you are actually buying.
Let’s evaluate your vendors before the next renewalFrequently Asked Questions
On September 3, 2026, he posted on X that Palantir is a consultant riding a bubble of AI FOMO demand, and warned its market capitalization could fall below $100 billion. He supported the argument by comparing Palantir's deferred revenue against subscription software companies.
Divide deferred revenue on the balance sheet by the most recent quarter's revenue. A subscription business bills up front and carries a large liability, typically above 100 percent. A consultancy bills against delivered work and carries almost none. Palantir came in at 31.7 percent as of June 30, 2026.
Because Palantir's gross margin rose to 84.7 percent in Q2 2026, up from 80.6 percent in 2023, while revenue nearly doubled. Accenture, an actual consultancy, runs around 32 percent. A consultancy's cost of revenue is people, and people do not permit that margin at any scale.
Add every contract liability in the latest filing, deferred revenue plus customer deposits, divide by that quarter's revenue, and read gross margin beside it. A low ratio with a low margin means you are buying hours. A low ratio with a high margin means a product that still needs people to install.
Related Articles
Bending Spoons Bought Airtable. Now Check Your Plan.
Airtable grew past $480M ARR at 20% and still sold for $1.285B cash against an $11B mark. Picking a vendor means picking its next owner too.
Porsche Sold Its Consulting Arm, Then Rented It Back
Porsche sold MHP to TCS for 320 million euros and signed a five-year partnership worth 1.25 billion. The accounting works. The learning walks out.
Karp Attacked AI Pricing on CNBC. A Bill Proved Him Right.
Alex Karp accused OpenAI and Anthropic of extracting value through token pricing. Days later Pylon's CEO watched his bill jump from $400K to $1.4M.
Your CRM Is Infrastructure Now. The Value Is Above It.
a16z argues that GTM software's next-decade value lives in the reasoning layer above the database, not the CRM itself. The FDE hiring spree is the proof.
Frontier Company Named Accenture. Wall Street Cut It Anyway.
Microsoft committed $2.5B to Frontier Company and named Accenture a launch partner. Two weeks earlier, TD Cowen downgraded Accenture for the exact same reason.
The decade's most expensive rebrand: Big Five to FDE
Google joined the FDE race. Maurizio calls it the rebrand of the 2020s. It's the third label for the same job since 1990. This time the difference is Satya.