McKinsey Berlin and Amodei: Who Trains the Next Senior?
Ricardo Argüello, October 20, 2026
CEO & Founder
General summary
Three McKinsey employees in Berlin, including a Digital Expert and a Director of Product, AI, went to court to force a works council their own office had voted down in a secret ballot. Dario Amodei's prediction that AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs is 16 months old, and Stanford data confirms only part of it. Together they point at one problem for any professional-services firm: two careers under one contract and a shrinking base of juniors.
- On April 17, 2026, 129 people in McKinsey's Berlin office voted: 73 against appointing an election board, 44 in favor, 12 abstained. Three employees went to the labor court, which refused urgent relief. The main hearing is July 29, 2027.
- Dario Amodei told Axios on May 28, 2025 that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years. That is a 16-month-old prediction, not news.
- Stanford and ADP measured in August 2026 that employment of 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed occupations is 19% below trend, through reduced hiring. They found no evidence of economy-wide displacement.
- The people who brought the case are specialists, not consultants on the partner track. The question for any firm is what the next level looks like for a specialist.
- If agents take the junior work, tomorrow's senior judgment has to be built on purpose, with real cases checked against a senior's answer.
Picture a cabinetmaker's shop where apprentices spend years sanding before the master lets them carve. Machines arrive that sand by themselves. The shop saves wages, but in ten years nobody will have sanded enough to tell when a piece is right. AI does something similar to professional-services firms: it does not destroy the craft, it removes the place where the craft was learned.
AI-generated summary
On April 17, 129 people in McKinsey’s Berlin office voted in secret. The question was whether to appoint an election board, the step before electing a works council (Betriebsrat). Seventy-three voted no. Forty-four voted yes. Twelve abstained.
Three employees did not accept that and went to a labor court. Der Spiegel reported it, and Handelsblatt filled in the detail on October 6. The court rejected urgent relief, and the main hearing is set for July 29, 2027. According to Handelsblatt, none of the big consultancies in Germany (McKinsey, Bain, BCG, Roland Berger) has a works council.
One note on the numbers. McKinsey’s spokeswoman described a two-thirds majority. Using Handelsblatt’s figures, 73 of 117 yes-or-no votes is 62%, before abstentions. A clear majority, though not two-thirds.
What interests me is who pushed.
The plaintiffs are not on the partner track
Ben Appleton, an executive recruiter for consulting firms, made the point plainly: the initiators hold titles of Digital Expert and Director of Product, AI. Handelsblatt confirms the titles and adds that dismissal and pay proceedings were already running with some of them. They are not generalist consultants chasing partner.
Appleton reads consulting as a bargain: fast progression and high reward in exchange for long hours and wide management discretion. For the partner-track generalist it still works. For specialists it is weaker. One expert Associate Partner at a top-tier firm told him, in Appleton’s quote: “It’s very difficult to get to the next level as a technical expert.”
That is a headhunter’s account, not a study, and I do not know how any individual voted. But the tension is real at any firm that has hired AI specialists: two careers, one ladder.
Amodei’s prediction is from May 2025
A correction while we are here. The claim that Dario Amodei says AI will wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs is circulating again as if it were fresh. He said it to Axios on May 28, 2025: half of those jobs could go and unemployment could reach 10% to 20% within one to five years, with technology, finance, law, and consulting among the exposed sectors. That is 16 months ago. It is a prediction, and it has not expired.
What does the data say? Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen at Stanford published an August 2026 update of their ADP payroll study, with data through June. Two findings sit side by side. No evidence of economy-wide job displacement. And employment of 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed occupations is 19% below where it would be if it had tracked their less-exposed peers. It was 15% in the July 2025 data. It works through fewer hires, not layoffs.
That is not the same measure as Amodei’s, so it neither confirms nor refutes him. It is not proven cause either; the authors call it descriptive. My reading: nothing like half is visible, but the front door is closing slowly. I looked at the first cut of this data for engineering in March.
Where the two stories meet
A professional-services firm (consultancy, law firm, accounting practice, agency) runs on a pyramid. Many juniors carry the volume, some become seniors, few make partner. If agents take the work at the base, the pyramid loses its entrance. And the specialists hired to run those agents have no ladder of their own, which is exactly the complaint Appleton attaches to the Berlin case.
That leaves a question no contract answers: who trains the next senior? A senior’s judgment came from solving a hundred small cases badly and then well. If an agent solves those hundred, the junior who is left over does not learn from them. I wrote about taste debt: the bill arrives later, when nobody is left who can say the output is wrong.
What I would do in a 20 to 200 person firm
First, write the specialist ladder. A next level with a name, a way to move up without selling projects, and its own review criteria. If you do not write it, they write it themselves, sometimes in a courtroom.
Second, make junior learning a process instead of an accident. One real case a week: the junior solves it, the agent solves it, and a senior compares both against the answer they would give. Track how many cases the junior solves without the tool, even though the tool exists. It is slower and costlier than letting the agent do everything. It is also the price of having seniors in 2030.
Third, set a number for entry-level hires per year and report it like revenue. What does not show up in a partners’ meeting disappears quietly.
What we would measure first at IQ Source with a firm like that is which tasks the juniors do today, one by one, and which of them an agent could already do. That comes out of the real process map (the Process Reality Map in AI Maestro), and you need it before deciding how many juniors to hire.
If you run a services firm and that task list does not exist yet, map those tasks with AI Maestro
Frequently Asked Questions
On April 17, 2026, a McKinsey Berlin staff assembly voted in secret on appointing an election board for a works council: 73 against, 44 in favor, 12 abstentions, per Handelsblatt. Three employees took the case to the Berlin labor court, which rejected urgent relief. The main hearing is set for July 29, 2027.
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, told Axios on May 28, 2025 that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push US unemployment to between 10% and 20% within one to five years. He named technology, finance, law, and consulting among the exposed sectors.
The Stanford Digital Economy Lab study using ADP payroll data, updated in August 2026, found employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations is 19% below where it would be if it had tracked less-exposed peers. It happens through reduced hiring, and the authors call it descriptive, not causal.
A firm can train seniors on purpose: give juniors real cases, compare their work and the agent's against a senior's answer, measure which cases they solve without the tool, and keep a fixed number of entry-level hires each year. Judgment comes from supervised repetition, not from reading.
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